3-Month Forecast — VL Coverage & Suppression

Trend projection with 95% target line

TX_ML Forecast

Interruption trajectory — target ≤3%

Facilities Likely to Miss Targets Next Cycle

Composite drift score based on coverage, PBS, and TX_ML

Facility	State	VL Cov	PBS	TX_ML	Drift
Kaduna North GH 3	Kaduna	78.6%	86.3%	1.6%	39.9
Chikun MCH 6	Kaduna	81.3%	86%	2%	38.7
Kaduna North GH 6	Kaduna	79.7%	86.8%	1.7%	38.6
Chikun GH 5	Kaduna	78.5%	88.6%	1.6%	37.7
Chikun CHC 4	Kaduna	83.5%	86.1%	2.3%	37.3
Sabon-Gari GH 5	Kaduna	84%	86.6%	2.3%	36.3
Chikun PHC 3	Kaduna	83.7%	87.4%	2.3%	35.8
Kajuru MCH 3	Kaduna	82.8%	87.8%	2.1%	35.7
Sabon-Gari Clinic 2	Kaduna	85.6%	86.4%	2.5%	35.5
Kaduna South CHC 7	Kaduna	82%	89%	2%	35.0
Sabon-Gari CHC 7	Kaduna	79.3%	91.3%	1.7%	34.5
Igabi GH 4	Kaduna	83.9%	88.6%	2.3%	34.4

Best Practice Candidates

Excellent VLS + PBS with low TX_ML — replicate

• No facilities currently meet the best-practice thresholds.